CLEVELAND - World demand for architectural paint is forecast to rise 3.9 percent per year through 2011 to 21.5 million metric tons, valued at $47 billion. Although respectable, growth will decelerate in comparison to the performance of the 2001-2006 period, due to a projected slowdown in global building construction expenditure through 2011. Through 2011, water-based paints will expand their share of the global market to 73 percent. Western Europe’s paint industry will see a penetration rate of 88 percent by 2011, spurred by some of the strictest environmental regulations in the world, a few of which will come into effect over the course of the 2006-2011 period. These and other trends are presented in World Architectural Paints, a new study from The Freedonia Group Inc.

Gains will be paced by developing countries in the Asia-Pacific region, with the world’s two most populous nations, China and India, both seeing large gains in their markets. In 2006, architectural paint demand in China and India stood at 1.2 and 0.6 kilograms per person, respectively. In contrast, per capita demand in developed countries averages around 9-10 kilograms. North America will register the weakest gains of all regions through 2011, impacted by the housing and mortgage crisis. Western Europe will also register weak growth, with below-average economic and building construction growth prospects, mortgage sector weaknesses in some constituent nations and stagnant regional population growth all to blame. Nevertheless, Western Europe will remain the world’s leading regional net exporter of architectural paint, due largely to Germany.

All regions other than Western Europe will see do-it-yourself (DIY) paint demand growing faster than professional-sector paint demand. The exception is Western Europe, where recent trends suggest a shift in favor of the professional sector.<