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TiO2 Insider is a quarterly column written by Gerald Colamarino, Director of TiPMC Solutions, that provides insight into the ever-changing global TiO2 market.
This month’s edition of TiPMC Solution’s TiO2 Insider focuses on global TiO2, mineral sands, and coatings producers’ first half earnings reports, and their outlooks for the remainder of 2023. The prolonged slump seems all but certain to continue for the rest of 2023. TiPMC believes 2023 will see a 5-8% drop in overall TiO2 demand as compared to 2022, when the market declined an estimated 8% vs. the previous year.
The TiO2 industry continues to experience difficult times. Multi-national producer volume in 1Q23 was 31% lower than 1Q22, while net exports from China increased 22%. This followed a fourth quarter that was down 35% compared to the previous year. Is there a light at the end of the tunnel, and if so, how long is the tunnel?
The TiO2 industry has experienced three extremely difficult quarters, as rapid decreases in underlying demand, followed by destocking, led to significant decreases in demand. In this column, TiPMC discuss how an increasing portion of the capital investment within TiO2 will focus on cost reduction.
TiPMC discusses the current TiO2 market specifically in regards to projections in demands outside of China, sales for the first half of 2023, and changes in the current destocking trend.
The TiO2 industry is entering a significantly challenging time. The optimism of the first half of 2022 has completely turned in the opposite direction. European demand may be off as much as 40-50% in the second half of 2022 versus the prior year. Numerous operating plants are reported to be curtailing or ceasing production. North America and Latin America were reported to remain strong. These regions are expected to slow in 2023, as recession is likely.
The consensus opinion of leading executives was there are many signs of slowing markets in Europe and parts of Asia, particularly China. Energy inflation throughout Europe, particularly Germany, took their toll on TiO2 demand. One consulting firm believes the current trends are further evidence of an increasingly differentiated market for TiO2.
The TiO2 industry continues to change through unusual global economic conditions. The uncommon response of global producers is changing the short- and long-term dynamics of the industry.
The TiO2 industry is seeing favorable supply and demand conditions. Chinese producers, the usual industry disruptors, are facing more serious challenges than their multinational competitors.
The TiO2 industry is in a position never before experienced in its long history as it moves through the seasonally high coatings demand period in North America. Demand is returning beyond average GDP levels, particularly in China. In turn, price-sensitive customers are absorbing a huge increase in price.