The global titanium dioxide (TiO₂) industry is grappling with a volatile landscape in 2025, driven by antidumping tariffs and persistent overcapacity. Tariffs imposed by the European Union (14.4%–39.7%), Brazil and India are significantly reducing the competitiveness of Chinese TiO₂ exports, fostering a shift toward multinational producer (MNP) products. Weak MNP core markets, coupled with low utilization rates, are not delivering the desired industry impact. Although the tariffs, particularly on Chinese imports to the large and fast-growing markets in India, are creating promise for MNPs in the future, the immediate outlook is not bright.

In Europe, Chinese TiO₂ imports dropped nearly 20% in April 2025 compared to early 2023, as tariffs effective since July 2024 drive MNP market share gains. Brazil reflects a similar trend, with Chinese imports down 10 kt in Q1 2025, while imports from Mexico (Chemours) have risen. India saw a Q1 surge in Chinese imports (94 kt of 110 kt total) due to pre-tariff restocking, but exports declined in April, signaling tariff impacts. These shifts are critical, as TiPMC estimates 750 kt of Chinese exports are at risk, potentially transitioning 270 kt to MNPs by 2026, boosting utilization rates and pricing power. However, key MNP markets remain weak.

However, key MNP markets remain weak. The U.S. housing market, a key TiO₂ driver, shows no significant recovery, with flat existing home sales and high mortgage rates limiting coatings demand. Europe’s economic confidence mirrors mid-2022 lows, with industrial production spikes driven by pre-tariff restocking rather than sustained growth. China’s housing market, down 4% year-over-year in April 2025, further depresses domestic TiO₂ consumption, forcing producers to cut output and prices.

MNPs face low utilization rates (~77%), fueling price competition in North America, where substantial price reductions are reported in Q2 2025 to capture volume. In contrast, European MNPs are raising prices (3%–15% in April 2025) to improve margins amid high energy costs (natural gas up 60% since 2019). Chinese producers, insulated by flat energy costs, are managing overcapacity (400–500 ktpa) through maintenance outages and temporary shutdowns, with production down significantly in Q2 2025 as domestic demand and exports fall. Chinese exports are reported to be down about 100 kt, or 20%, in Q2 2025 compared to the previous quarter. All this during what is generally considered the highest demand quarter of the year.

TiPMC forecasts no significant recovery in 2025, with sales growth of 1%–3% above 2024 levels, driven by India and the Middle East but offset by European weakness. Long term, a 2026–2027 recovery is possible as U.S. and European housing markets improve, potentially aligning TiO₂ demand with GDP growth. However, sustained tariffs could lead to price spikes, prompting consumer pushback and possible tariff relief.

What Does This Mean for TiO₂ Consumers, and What Can Be Expected in the Future?

MNPs are likely to leverage tariffs for market share gains while optimizing costs. Further consolidation will likely be required to accelerate industry recovery, with some action possible in the second half of 2025. Chinese producers are indicating some closures, but new production facilities continue to be announced, with ample room for price increases to attract restarts and investment.

Without structural changes, overcapacity will persist, delaying pricing power until 2027 or beyond. However, structural industry shifts could create a scenario where producer pricing power is more sustainable than in past cycles. Considering Chinese market saturation and lack of capital among MNPs to expand, future periods of high industry utilization may offer no relief. The timing of this scenario remains in question.