ELMWOOD PARK, NJ - According to the consulting firm of Kusumgar, Nerlfi & Growney, global coatings consumption is forecast to be off sharply in 2009 owing to the effects of the financial crisis and resulting worldwide recession. Consumption in 2009 is a projected 58.7 billion pounds, which is valued at $88.4 billion. Volume is down six percent from the prior year and dollar value is down eight percent. Recovery of the global economy will give coatings consumption an average annual increase of 5 percent in volume through 2014. In 2014, coatings poundage is forecast to be up 30 percent over 2009 and dollar value up 26 percent. However, when compared to the pre-recession year of 2008, poundage in 2014 is projected to be up 21 percent and dollar value up 15 percent.
Architectural coatings are the largest coating segment with 57 percent of the global volume in 2009 and 40 percent of the value. Architectural coating volume is down 5 percent compared to 2008 and a six-percent-per-year rate of growth is projected through 2014. Original equipment manufacturers (OEM) coatings are 28 percent of the 2009 poundage; volume is down 10 percent over 2008, and dollar value is down 13 percent. A six-percent-per-year rate of growth is forecast through 2014 when OEM volume is projected to be up 31 percent over 2009, but only 17 percent when compared to 2008. Transportation applications had the sharpest declines in 2009. Special-purpose coatings are 15 percent of the pounds; volume is down a modest two percent compared to 2008. Marine coatings growth continued in 2009, but there are significant obstacles to future growth for these coatings. Special-purpose coatings are forecast to grow four percent per year through 2014.
Europe and North America had the sharpest declines in 2009, with Europe going from 19.2 billion pounds in 2008 to 17.2 billion pounds in 2009, and North America going from 13.9 billion pounds in 2008 compared to 12.3 billion pounds in 2009. The Asia-Pacific region was off only slightly, with 23.4 billion pounds consumed in 2008 compared to 23.3 billion pounds in 2009. Growth in China and India more than offset the declines in the mature Asia-Pacific economies of Japan and South Korea. The Asia-Pacific region is forecast to see 33.2 billion pounds of consumption by 2014, a seven percent growth rate. Europe should see a growth rate of four percent, consuming 20.9 billion pounds by 2014. North American will see a growth rate of three percent, consuming 14.3 billion pounds in 2014.
The above information is contained in Kusumgar, Nerlfi & Growney’s just-released study, Global Paint & Coatings. The study is available through subscription. E-email nerlfikng@cs.com for additional information.