Need to Know

• Changes in congressional control and committee leadership after the 2026 midterms could affect transportation, trade, tax and regulatory policy for chemical distributors.
• Reliable ocean, rail and truck transportation affects costs across the coatings supply chain, making freight competition and resilience central to affordability.
• AI can improve forecasting, inventory management and logistics while increasing exposure to fraud, cyberattacks and supply-chain manipulation.
• ACD expects tariff uncertainty, USMCA review and heightened scrutiny of chemical imports to continue regardless of the election outcome.

That's why the time to prepare for what follows the 2026 midterm elections is now.

While several election scenarios remain possible, the political landscape is beginning to come into focus. Republicans could maintain control of Congress. Democrats could regain one or both chambers. Or, Washington could once again find itself with a divided Congress. Given current polling and the historical tendency for the president's party to lose seats in the midterms, many political observers believe Democrats have a strong chance of capturing at least one chamber of Congress.

Regardless of who wins, change is certainly coming. More than one in ten members of Congress have already announced they will not return next year – a number certain to grow after the ballots are counted on Election Day. That means new committee chairs, new ranking members, and dozens of new lawmakers who may know little about the critical role chemical distribution and the paint and coatings industry play in America's economy.

For our industry, and all the businesses who depend on the reliable, efficient, and cost-effective transport of chemical products for their success, that education starts immediately.

Chemical distribution rarely makes front-page news, but the products we move make modern life possible. As our paint and coatings supply chain partners know, the Alliance for Chemical Distribution (ACD) connects manufacturers with the raw materials they need to produce everything from high-performance resins and binders to essential pigments, fillers, and solvents.

When our supply chain works, American businesses thrive. When it doesn't, everyone feels the consequences. As candidates make their case to voters this fall, there are four conversations we'll be following especially closely.

Supply Chain Resilience Is the Foundation of Affordability

If there is one word that defines this election, it is affordability.

Families are feeling it every time they buy groceries or pump gas. Small businesses are feeling it every time another invoice arrives. Manufacturers are feeling it whenever transportation costs unexpectedly climb. Members of the chemical distribution industry are no different.

The past two years have offered a stark reminder of how quickly geopolitical events can reshape the global economy. Disruptions to key shipping lanes in the Middle East created uncertainty throughout global ocean freight markets, driving transportation costs higher and ultimately increasing prices across the supply chain.

Those costs don't simply disappear. They move downstream.

Affordability is often framed as a consumer issue, but it begins much earlier with the ability to move products safely, efficiently, and predictably. That's why affordability and supply chain resilience are inseparable. One cannot exist without the other.

Chemical distribution depends on an interconnected transportation network. Ocean carriers move raw materials into the country. Freight rail transports products efficiently across long distances. Trucks complete the final delivery to manufacturers and communities across America. Every link matters. When one becomes less reliable, the entire system becomes more expensive.

That's why we're looking for policymakers who recognize that strengthening America's supply chain is one of the most effective ways to improve affordability over the long term. That means supporting policies that make freight transportation more accountable. reliable, competitive, and resilient.

For our industry, that includes advancing legislation like the bipartisan Railway Safety Act, which would strengthen the freight rail system through long-overdue investments in safety, service, and workforce stability. It also means opposing further consolidation among Class I railroads that could reduce competition, increase costs, and leave shippers with fewer options.

Supply chains rarely fail in a single moment. They weaken gradually. They weaken when transportation costs become unpredictable, service deteriorates, and competition gives way to concentration.

America doesn't simply need a freight network that functions today. It needs one that is resilient enough to keep costs down, support economic growth, and deliver the certainty businesses need for decades to come.

AI Is Creating New Opportunities—and New Risks

Few issues have captured attention as quickly as artificial intelligence (AI).

Just a few years ago, AI was largely confined to technology conferences. Today, it is a topic of conversation in boardrooms, breakrooms, and around kitchen tables alike. For those in chemical distribution, the technology holds tremendous promise. Better forecasting. Smarter inventory management. More efficient logistics. Faster decision-making.

But innovation is only one side of the equation. The same technology that is making businesses more productive is also making criminals more sophisticated. Our industry routinely handles products that are essential to public health, infrastructure, manufacturing, and national security. That makes our members an increasingly attractive target for fraud, cyberattacks, and supply chain manipulation.

As policymakers continue debating how AI should be governed, we'll be looking for approaches that encourage innovation while protecting the critical industries that keep America's economy running.

Tax Policy Will Shape Investment Decisions

The Republican majority's passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act represented one of the most significant tax policy changes in years, providing meaningful and permanent relief for many businesses and creating new opportunities for investment and growth.

Whether those provisions remain in place—or become the subject of renewed debate—will depend heavily on November's outcome.

A Democratic Congress may seek to revisit portions of the law. A Republican Congress may seek to build upon it. Either way, businesses benefit most from certainty.

Business investments are measured in years, not election cycles. The more predictable Washington can make the tax environment, the more confidently companies can hire workers, expand facilities, and invest in the infrastructure needed to strengthen American manufacturing.

A New Congress Will Bring New Priorities

Election night won't be the only source of change.

The retirement of longtime lawmakers like Mitch McConnell (R-KY), Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), Dick Durbin (D-IL), Joni Ernst (R-IA), David Scott (D-GA), Jodey Arrington (R-TX), Jerry Nadler (D-NY), and others will reshape some of Congress' most influential committees regardless of which party holds the majority.

Leadership transitions on the Judiciary, Agriculture, and Budget Committees will influence everything from antitrust policy and technology regulation to agricultural trade, federal spending, and supply chain oversight.

For ACD, those changes represent both a challenge and an opportunity.

Every new lawmaker is another opportunity to explain why chemical distribution matters and why policies affecting transportation, trade, taxes, and regulation have consequences that extend far beyond our industry and those we support. The work of building those relationships won't begin after the legislative session gets underway. It will begin the moment the election results are clear.

ACD will be ready to meet with new committee chairs, ranking members, and freshmen lawmakers from both parties to ensure they understand the indispensable role chemical distribution plays in powering America's economy. We'll make the case that policies affecting our industry extend far and wide, touching manufacturers, farmers, paint and coatings professionals, water treatment facilities, healthcare providers, and countless other businesses and communities that depend on the safe, reliable movement of chemical products every day.

The sooner those conversations begin, the better positioned Congress will be to craft policies that strengthen the supply chain, support American competitiveness, and keep essential goods moving throughout the economy.

Some Trends Will Continue Regardless of the Election

Not everything will change in November.

The Trump administration's more protectionist approach to trade is likely to continue, including ongoing reviews of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement and an ever-evolving tariff strategy. Businesses can adapt to new rules, but constant uncertainty makes long-term planning significantly more difficult.

Likewise, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) enforcement activity surrounding the Toxic Substances Control Act and Chemical Data Reporting requirements has intensified considerably as the agency scrutinizes chemical imports, particularly from Asia. Working more closely with U.S. Customs and Border Protection, EPA has expanded its efforts to identify shipments that violate federal chemical regulations and ensure imported products meet the same standards as those produced domestically. The increased enforcement sends a clear signal that chemical manufacturers and importers should expect greater scrutiny and ensure their compliance programs and reporting practices remain current.

At the same time, we have been encouraged by the administration's efforts to reduce duplicative regulations that increase costs without improving safety or environmental outcomes. We expect that work to continue in the months ahead as agencies look for additional opportunities to modernize outdated rules while maintaining strong environmental and public health protections. Strong enforcement and smart regulation should complement – not compete with – one another.

Preparing for Whatever Comes Next

The months ahead will feature no shortage of campaign rhetoric. Our focus is on the policies that will outlast it.

As businesses continue navigating higher costs, transportation challenges, evolving trade policy, and rapid technological change, the stakes of this election are significant for chemical distribution and for every industry that depends on a safe, efficient, and resilient supply chain.

No matter who controls Congress next year, ACD will continue working with the Trump administration and leaders in both parties to advance practical solutions that strengthen American competitiveness. We will continue educating new lawmakers, advocating for policies that improve affordability and supply chain resilience, and ensuring our members have the information they need to navigate an evolving policy landscape.

Election outcomes may be uncertain. Our commitment to building a stronger, more resilient chemical supply chain is not.

Explore more analysis of chemical distribution, policy and supply-chain issues in PCI’s Distribution Dive column.