The baseline model projects a 2.7% global increase, while a scenario incorporating additional risk and uncertainty reaches 6.7%.

Kearney projects potential increases of approximately 5% in the United States, 8.3% in India, 5.9% in China, 4.5% in Mexico and 3.1% in Germany.

Manufacturing and Geopolitical Pressure

The report examines labor costs, energy prices, trade conditions, commodity prices, inventory levels, freight rates and other factors affecting business operations.

It also incorporates risk indicators related to demand, financing, market conditions and geopolitics.

Kearney reported that geopolitical risk indicators increased substantially, making them one of the most significant sources of uncertainty in the outlook.

Manufacturing activity and industrial material import prices also contributed to the cost picture.

"We're looking at the same supply chain costs through two lenses: fundamentals and risk," said Rupal Deshmukh, a partner in Kearney's Supply Chain Institute.

"Fundamentals show what businesses are paying today. Risk shows the pressure building before it hits the reported numbers. Keeping the two separate tells us what has happened to costs and what could happen next."

Kearney recommends that companies evaluate cost exposure by business unit, product, supplier and customer rather than relying exclusively on a single global forecast.

For coatings manufacturers, the outlook provides context for supplier price increases and continued attention to raw-material procurement, logistics and working capital.

The projections apply across industries and should not be interpreted as a specific forecast of coatings raw-material inflation.

Rising supply chain costs can affect chemical procurement, transportation and production planning across coatings manufacturing. Explore PCI's coatings market reports.