TiPMC believes this scenario sets up the TiO2 industry for a roller coaster impact throughout the next several months. The implications of a weaker Chinese economy will be involved in a balancing act with reduced Chinese production and increasing Chinese production costs.
The differentiation among TiO2 products is not only growing but impacting supply and demand. Customers and suppliers alike are recognizing inventories and pricing more as “sulfate vs. chloride”, which in reality deals more with the quality of products accepted within differential segments – and having their own supply/demand dynamics.
TiO2 demand is more closely correlated to industrial production than to GDP, and the correlation between TiO2 demand and GDP is likely to decline as service sectors grow as a share of global GDP.
Pricing is beginning to reflect destocking coming to a close. Based on recent reports and trade data, TiPMC foresees prices stabilized in all regions during the traditionally strong demand period of 2Q, with price increases gaining traction toward the end of the quarter in specific regions.
The TiO2 industry worldwide is encountering difficulties and challenges short term, although there are some signs of hope. The trade wars, the potential of recession in the European economy, and political tensions in the Middle East are showing up in trade statistics, and they directly relate to TiO2 demand.
TiO2 forecasts for 2018 looked strong worldwide. Then yellow flags signaled warnings by early summer. What happened? And what can we expect in the near future? CEOs of major TiO2 producers are still upbeat, because they see a strong industry and growing demand without significant capacity expansion.
From the perspective of TiPMC Solutions, ensuring reliable supplies of high-quality TiO2 and the feedstocks required to produce it will mean that coatings and other downstream customers will need to share value with the TiO2 producers, and their feedstock suppliers.
